The demographic projection has special significance for planning the territory’s socio-economic development and elaborating the effective demographic policy. This instrument allows predicting the change in population size, in its structure regarding the age, gender and family, the quality characteristics of the population and the basic parameters of its movement within the different scenarios of the situation’s development taking into account the management impact. The capital of the Vologda Oblast – the city of Vologda – as well as other territories sets the maintaining of favorable demographic situation as an important task of the development. The article is aimed at building the forecast of the Vologda’s population size up to 2030. The authors have conducted the evaluation of Vologda’s demographic development in comparison with the average regional indicators, and have built the most probable forecasts regarding the change in the population size of the city up to 2030. The forecast is carried out by using the cohort component method taking into account survival probability of each age group to the “next”, higher one, in four variants (inertial scenario, scenarios of increasing fertility and decreasing mortality, and management optimization scenario). Possible changes in fertility, mortality and migration indicators have been taken into consideration in each of them. The demographic prospects of the city testify the maintenance of negative trends regarding the population size in the medium term period. The reverse in the situation can be achieved only by increasing the parenthood status of families, i.e. by changing the fertility model. The results of the conducted study have practical significance and can be used in elaborating the specific measures of demographic policy in the city of Vologda and in strategic planning of its development
Keywords
population, demographic development, fertility, mortality, demographic projection, municipal unit